By Abdul Rahma Aliagan
When the well-known political theorist, Leo Strauss, turned attention to the issue of politics and religion in his reflections, he presented it as a problem—the “theologico-political problem.”
He probably had Nigeria in mind as religion, and perhaps its underpinnings, have become paradoxically a portent danger as well as magical elixir to be deployed by political actors in the nation’s putative democracy.
In the countdown to the general elections only a few weeks away, this country of about 160 million people have never been so much polarized than now on the issue of religion as a critical factor in ascension to political office.
How did Nigeria come to this pass when only during the June 12, 1993 presidential elections, it wholeheartedly voted for a Muslim-Muslim ticket in the tag team of Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe?
As in the Biblical days of yore, from the beginning it was not so.
When the swashbuckling Major-General Aguyi Ironsi became Head of State after Nigeria’s first coup, Brigadier Babafemi Ogundipe became Chief of Staff while Lt-Colonel Yakubu Gowon was the Chief of Army Staff.
Lt-Colonel Chukwuemeka Ojukwu was the Governor of the Eastern Region while Adekunle Fajuyi took charge of the Western Region with David Ejoor in the Mid-West and Hassan Katsina calling the shots as Governor of Northern Region.
Incidentally, Katsina was the only Muslim in this high ranking formation and the religion question was never raised.
Even in the succeeding Yakubu Gowon administration, Vice Admiral Joseph Edet Akinwale Wey, a Christian like his principal, was the Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters.
The Buhari/Idiagbon administration also had Muslim/Muslim ticket and religion never came up for mention.
With the approaching elections, however, there are growing concerns that the country’s long-standing stratifications based on ethnic and religious lines may be brought to bear on the choice of candidates.
On December 11, the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) selected as its presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, a septuagenarian Muslim from the North.
This was after he had stirred controversy with his “ nothing is wrong with Muslim-Muslim ticket.’’
His party was, however, realistic in the choice of Yemi Osinbajo, a Professor of Law and pastor in the Redeemed Christian Church of God, one of the fastest growing churches in the world.
He will tackle the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian Southerner, just as he did in 2011, which recorded the most violent campaigns, with more than 1,000 deaths in the post-election violence.
Buhari, Nigeria’s military ruler between 1983 and 1985 before being himself overthrown in a subsequent coup, has a reputation for incorruptibility and firm discipline. Yet, many Christians, who are predominately in the south, see him as a religious bigot who will attempt to islamise the country, having initially been accused of surreptitiously taken the country to the Organisation of Islamic Countries during his tenure.
Fears among Christians about a Buhari presidency have not been helped by the insurgency ravaging the North East Zone of the country where the extremist Boko Haram sect activities have resulted in the death of over 16,000 people.
Although both Muslims and Christians have been at the receiving end of the bloodthirsty group, the Islamists have also singled out Christians for murder or forced conversion to Islam while vowing to put in place an Islamic state.
“Bad governance, inefficiency and corruption have stirred up religion to the point that it becomes a defining identity,” Matthew Kukah, a respected intellectual and Bishop of the Catholic Diocese of Sokoto, was once quoted to have said.
“The worry is whether [Buhari] has the capacity to rein in the excesses of his supporters, a good number of whom may not possess the reflex for showing tolerance,’’ he had added.
Instructively, many Muslims in the country today also feel discriminated against by the Jonathan administration which is said to have done little to assuage the fears of marginalization expressed by them.
The president is also seen as partisan in representing a diverse nation, despite his appointment of a Muslim running mate, Architect Namadi Sambo.
In October, Jonathan was said to have made a “private pilgrimage” to Jerusalem, where he was reported to have visited various Christian and Jewish holy sites but no Muslim ones.
“Whether Goodluck likes to hear it or not, he is seen by most Muslim masses in Nigeria as the most pro-Christian president,” Ahmad Gumi, a controversial Muslim cleric, wrote in an open letter earlier this year.
But had Yar’adua not died in 2010, President Goodluck Jonathan may by now traditionally be warming up to take over from his principal. But Yar’Adua’s death paved way for him to continue the tenure which ended in 2011 and he contested and won that same year. Jonathan in the history of democratic setting in Nigeria is the second president from the South and the second Christian to occupy the office since 1999.
Incidentally, previous presidential elections had not had any religious colouration like that of this year’s.
Some analysts are of the strong notion that supporters of Jonathan have subtly played on the religious sentiment of Nigerians to curry support for the reaffirmation of his ambition.
Faith-based bodies are well organized in spite the fact that membership is voluntary and the decision of the body is not by the law of the country binding on members. The Christian arm under the umbrella of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) is a well organized association with all the components of the various denominations represented.
CAN is made up of five constituencies- Catholic Secretariat of Nigeria (CSN), Christian Council of Nigeria (CCN), Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria (PFN), Organization of African Instituted Churches, TEKAN and ECWA Fellowships. All these constituencies assert strong influence and have large followership.
The association was formed to take unilateral action on vital matters, especially on those issues that affect Christian faithful and the welfare of the generality of Nigerians. CAN has been vocal on various national issues affecting the country. However, in recent times the body’s president, Ayo Oritsejafor, has come under serious criticism over his utterances and relationship with the presidency.
It would be recalled that the Catholic Secretariat of Nigeria through the Catholic Bishop Conference of Nigeria in 2013 threatened to dissociate itself from the body due to what Time Nigeria gathered was the unguarded utterances of the outspoken cleric.
The president had also at various times described Oritsejafor as his “friend”. This, observers, see as uncalled for since CAN has always drawn the line between the church and the state. Last year, Oritsejafor acquired a private jet which he claimed was a gift from his “friends”.
In 2014, his jet was enmeshed in a controversy involving an under the table acquisition of arms and ammunitions in the black market in South Africa.
This incident attracted a lot of criticism with many considering the involvement of the CAN president as too involved in the affairs of the state. His clearance by the presidency was also seen as a clear case of cover up of the man of God. There is therefore less doubt that the romance of Oritsejafor with the Jonathan government in recent years has dragged the church into partisan politics.
Unlike former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Jonathan appears to associate more with Christians in the country. While this may be subtle , as the elections draw near, the president may play on this fond attachment to draw vote from Christians in the country.
Islamic organisations may not be so organised like their Christian counterparts while the prominent ones are also regional. In the north, Islamic faithful are divided based on ideological beliefs.
A group which claims strict adherence to the teachings of the Quran and follow the footsteps of Holy Prophet Muhammed against innovations are known as Jama’atu Izalatul Bid’ah Wa’ikamatus Sunnah (JIBWIS) or popularly called Izala while another Al-Ṭariqah al-Tijaniyyah, or “The Tijānī Path”) is a sufi tariqa (order, path) within Sunni Islam, originating from the North Africa but now more widespread in West Africa and Nigeria.
Its adherent, who are called Tijānī, attach a great importance to culture and education, and emphasize the individual’s adhesion of the disciple. Though this group is not so organised as a formidable organisation like JIBWIS it also has a sizeable followership in the country.
Time Nigeria recalls that in 2013, there was a crisis in the leadership of the former and it was said that it was being polarised based on the political divides of the ruling party and an opposition party.
Indeed, early last year, two Annual National Conferences were held in Lagos and Abuja.
But more importantly, with Sambo, Jonathan’s running mate, at the centre of the organisation, it is not impossible to infer his influence among the faithful just as the former would also have sympathy for Buhari as APC flag bearer.
Jonathan’s Chances
If elections are to be won by associations, it would be safe to conclude that the 2015 presidential election would be won based on the relationship of Jonathan with Christians and CAN. The president has not in any way hidden his association with the leader of the body,Oritsejafor.
Early last year, Jonathan had vowed to attend churches outside the State House once in a month as against the tradition. When he visited the Dunamis Church in Area One, Abuja, in a visit tagged Presidential Church Tour, his words best explains the motive:
“I feel that it is good for me to go round and continue to appreciate what our brothers and sisters have been doing.”
In Lagos, he was at the Redeemed Christian Church of God, Olive Tree Parish on Banana Island.
Osinbajo, Buhari’s running mate and pastor in the church, was to reveal later that the president had specifically decided to worship on that Sunday at the same parish the General Overseer of the church, Pastor Enoch Adeboye, would worship.
Recently he was also at the CAC in Area One in Abuja where he said the purpose of his visit was to thank “my brothers and sisters for the prayers that they have been praying for the country, government and I.’’
The president’s popularity amongst Christians in the country may go a long way in influencing his success at the election.
Also in the Muslim community in the country, the president may draw considerable votes. While he may not readily hobnob with Islamic groups as he does with their Christian counterparts, he has a Muslim running mate in Sambo and participates in the annual Ramadan, the holy Muslim month of fasting.
Yet the allegations of marginalization against Muslims run deep and may adversely affect his chances.
Last year, the Nigeria Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs faulted the composition of the national conference, alleging that it was skewed against Muslims. To drive home their point, they marched to the State House and had a closed door meeting with the president. At meeting , the president assured them of his sincerity, saying he would not marginalize any group based on religion.
Whether this assurance was to believed was questioned when as the curtain drew on 2014, the United Nations Security Council met to vote on the statehood of the Palestine and Nigeria moved from supporting the resolution to abstaining.
This decision to abstain generated heated reactions from Muslim groups in the country who alleged that the action was a deliberate slap on the freedom of the people of Palestine.
Would this affect the chances of the president?
Buhari’s chances
Muhammadu Buhari seems to have his integrity working for him. However, his seeming toga of religious bigotry appears to be his albatross. Since 2000 when he was reported to have said in Sokoto that Muslims should vote for Muslims, there had been fears in the Christian community that he is an ardent hardliner whose crave for power would limit the rights of Christians while promote Muslims’ interests.
To launder his image in the Christian community, Buhari in 2011 chose Pastor Tunde Bakare, a fiery Christian cleric, as his running mate for the presidential election. Yet he lost. But a lot may be working for him with the taciturn general clinching the APC presidential ticket after walking the tight rope in a duel with former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Rabiu Kwankwanso, Owelle Rochas Okorocha and Sam Nda-Isaiah.
To reach out to the Christian community and downplay his initial “ Muslim-Muslim ticket’’ gaffe, he chose Osinbajo, who was also Lagos state Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice during the Bola Tinubu administration between 1999 and 2007.
Osinbajo’s Redeemed Christian Church of God links, it was said, may translate to votes.
Ironically, it was not Osinbajo’s church links that drew political capital for Buhari lately, it was the unexpected praying ground of the First Family that barbs were fired at the president.
The attack came from Rev. Fr. Ejike Mbaka, the Enugu-based Catholic priest who said time was up for Jonathan.
He had thundered: “I Love President Jonathan and I used to be his ardent fan, but I want good for my people and that’s why I want Nigerians to vote out Goodluck Jonathan and vote General Buhari.
“ I don’t care if Buhari is a Muslim and from the North; all I care about is that Buhari can save Nigeria.”
Mbaká’s directives to thousands of delirious adherents at his Adoration Prayer Ground to vote out Jonathan was as astounding as it was puzzling as only two months earlier at the same venue, he had endorsed the president.
The cleric, who first became popular in 2002 during the administration of Chimaroke Nnamani who he accused of extra-judicial killing, had once narrowly escaped assassination.
Mbaka’s latest exploit had dealt a mortal blow to the president’s campaign, an act made more painful by the fact that it is coming from the president’s spiritual stronghold.
Yet Jonathan, the shoeless boy who rose to prominence from the backwaters of Otouke, is a long distance runner in the shifting sands of Nigerian politics. Will his proverbial goodluck work yet again for him on February 14? The next few weeks will tell!