OSUN DECIDES – 2026: The Missing Links.
By Professor Rufa’i Ahmed Alkali Former Political adviser to president and University Lecturer in Nigeria
Last week’s Governorship election in Osun State has come and gone, but the outcome, as everything in Nigeria, has left behind a trail of debates and arguments among politicians, the media – especially the social media- and bystanders.
Unfortunately, even though not surprising, most commentators focus their attention on what they saw as APC losing the election to Accord – a small party! In the process, most commentators hardly look at the bigger picture.
First, yes, Accord won the election with 511,067 votes. But APC also scored 444,815 votes, which was far more than the 403,000 votes that APC scored during the Governoship election in the state in 2022. This was an increase of over 18 per cent.
Second, if we calculate the APC’s votes – 444,815 out of the 1,010,684 total votes, it means the APC has won 44.01% of the total votes cast in the Osun election. This is significant during presidential elections, when the minimum required for the president to win per state is 25 per cent of the votes cast. Here, APC has passed the threshhold.
Third, most commentators missed one important point, that Accord Party has no presidential candidate for the 2027 elections, and already Governor Adeleke has indicated interest to support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Even though politics is full of surprises, it is unlikely for Governor Adeleke to change his mind, abandon the president, and offer support to a fractured opposition political party.
Fourth, undoubtedly, the biggest looser in the August Osun election is the ADC, a significant development, which has received comparatively little public attention. The candidate of the ADC, Najeem Salaam, obtained only 17,180 votes. This was less than the 18,600 votes that the APC candidate won in Ife East Local Government of Osun State alone! This abyssal ADC failure occurred despite the fact Najeem Salaam was a former speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly.
Fifth, this is particularly significant because the ADC campaign had considerable national visibility. Its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, personally campaigned for Salaam, while Rauf Aregbesola – former two term Governor of Osun and who incidentally is the National Secretary of the ADC – also led the campaign efforts for the ADC in Osun State. The party, which claims to be a Third Force, scored the least and finished a very distant third. The implication is profound. National political visibility and noise do not automatically translate into local electoral strength. It is obvious that ADC’s failure in Osun State is the most humiliating defeat for a party that wants to win elections nationwide in 2027.
Surely, the Osun election is a lesson to all, and APC has learnt its lessons.
End