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ICPC, Power and Politics: The El-Rufai Question and the Health of Nigeria’s Democracy

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By Abdulrahman Aliagan

When anti-corruption investigations intersect with political rivalry, a troubling question inevitably arises: is justice truly being served, or is power being weaponised?

This question has resurfaced following the recent actions of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) against former Kaduna State governor, Nasir Ahmad el‑Rufai, a prominent figure who has increasingly positioned himself as a vocal critic of the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Reports that the anti-graft agency has linked multiple luxury properties in Egypt to the former governor have sparked heated debate across Nigeria’s political landscape. Yet beyond the sensational details of villas in Cairo’s affluent neighbourhoods lies a deeper national conversation about democracy, accountability, and the neutrality of state institutions.

According to information reported by TheCable, the ICPC has linked three villas and six apartments located in upscale districts of Cairo, Egypt, to el-Rufai. The properties are reportedly located in prestigious estates such as Arabilla Estate, Banafsik Estate, Oriana Estate, and Cairo Festival City in New Cairo.

Sources familiar with the investigation say the properties were acquired between 2021 and 2023, a period during which el-Rufai served as governor of Kaduna State.

The ICPC has been investigating the former governor over alleged financial impropriety during his tenure from 2015 to 2023, following earlier accusations by the Kaduna State House of Assembly that he diverted N423 billion in public funds.

Since February 2026, the former governor has faced a series of dramatic encounters with security agencies:
Interrogation by the Department of State Services (DSS)
Detention by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)

Continued custody and investigation by the ICPC, a raid on his Abuja residence where wire-tapping equipment was allegedly discovered, El-Rufai has denied wrongdoing and insists the investigation is politically motivated.

The timing of the investigation has become the most controversial element of the entire saga. El-Rufai completed his two-term tenure as governor in May 2023. For nearly two years after leaving office, there was no visible aggressive prosecution by federal anti-corruption agencies.

However, the political atmosphere changed dramatically after he became increasingly critical of the Tinubu administration and eventually aligned himself with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), an opposition political Critics argue that the sudden intensity of investigations appears less like coincidence and more like political retaliation.

As one Abuja-based political analyst observed:
“When anti-corruption agencies only remember their mandate after someone joins the opposition, the credibility of the investigation automatically becomes questionable.”

“When anti-corruption agencies only remember their mandate after someone joins the opposition, the credibility of the investigation automatically becomes questionable.”

Another civil society advocate put it more bluntly:
“Anti-graft agencies must not become instruments of political warfare. If corruption is the issue, the fight must be consistent, not selective.”

Anti-graft agencies must not become instruments of political warfare. If corruption is the issue, the fight must be consistent, not selective.”

Nigeria’s anti-corruption institutions—especially the ICPC and the EFCC—were established to strengthen transparency, accountability and good governance.
However, the long-standing criticism against these institutions has been selective prosecution, where investigations seem to intensify when political relationships break down.

Political commentator Musa Abdullahi notes: “The credibility of anti-corruption institutions depends on independence. Once they are perceived as tools against opposition figures, their moral authority collapses.”

“The credibility of anti-corruption institutions depends on independence. Once they are perceived as tools against opposition figures, their moral authority collapses.”

— Musa Abdullahi

Indeed, many Nigerians recall similar patterns in the country’s political history where politicians were celebrated while aligned with the ruling party but became corruption suspects once they defected.

Such perceptions undermine public confidence and weaken the broader fight against corruption.
As a governance analyst in Lagos remarked:
“If corruption investigations begin to follow political defections, Nigerians will naturally question whether justice or politics is the driving force.”

“If corruption investigations begin to follow political defections, Nigerians will naturally question whether justice or politics is the driving force.”

While concerns about political persecution deserve attention, el-Rufai himself is not without controversy.
The former governor has been accused by the DSS of illegally intercepting the phone conversations of Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu.

If proven true, the implications are serious. The Office of the National Security Adviser represents one of the most sensitive positions in Nigeria’s security architecture. Any suggestion that a private individual could tap or intercept the NSA’s telecommunications device raises alarming national security questions.

A retired intelligence officer warned:“If an individual can tap the communications of the National Security Adviser, it raises serious concerns about the integrity of Nigeria’s security infrastructure.”

“If an individual can tap the communications of the National Security Adviser, it raises serious concerns about the integrity of Nigeria’s security infrastructure.”

Such a scenario, critics argue, would embarrass the institution and expose vulnerabilities within the country’s intelligence system.

Regardless of the outcome of the investigations, one fundamental truth remains: democracy thrives on strong opposition.

Political competition and criticism are not threats to governance; they are essential elements of democratic accountability.

When opposition figures begin to face sudden legal scrutiny immediately after challenging the ruling establishment, the perception—fair or unfair—is that the state is being deployed to silence dissent.

Political historian Dr. Ibrahim Yusuf explains:“Democracy is weakened when opposition leaders are seen as targets of state power. Investigations must be transparent and insulated from politics.”

“Democracy is weakened when opposition leaders are seen as targets of state power. Investigations must be transparent and insulated from politics.”

— Dr Ibrahim Yusuf

The current controversy presents a defining moment for Nigeria’s anti-graft agencies. The ICPC and EFCC must demonstrate that their actions are driven purely by evidence and law—not by political convenience.

If credible evidence exists, prosecution must proceed transparently through the courts. But if the process appears politically motivated, it risks damaging not only the reputation of the agencies but also Nigeria’s democratic institutions.

As one civil society leader concluded: “Nigeria needs strong anti-corruption institutions, but they must be independent. Otherwise, the fight against corruption becomes just another tool in political battles.”

Nigeria needs strong anti-corruption institutions, but they must be independent. Otherwise, the fight against corruption becomes just another tool in political battles.”

The unfolding drama surrounding el-Rufai is therefore more than a personal legal battle.

It raises fundamental questions about state power, political tolerance, and the independence of institutions in Nigeria’s democracy.

Whether one supports or opposes the former governor, the broader principle remains clear: anti-corruption efforts must never become instruments for settling political scores.

If they do, the real casualty will not be a single politician—but the credibility of Nigeria’s democracy itself.

Aliagan is an Abuja-based Journalist, the Managine Editor,  Time Nigeria Magazine and the President of Nigerian Guild of Investigative Journalists, NGIJ. 

   

About author
Time Nigeria is a modern and general interest Magazine with its Headquarters in Abuja. The Magazine has a remarkable difference in editorial philosophy and goals, it adheres strictly to the ethics of Journalism by using the finest ethos of the profession to promote peace among citizens; identifying and harnessing the nation’s vast resources; celebrating achievements of government agencies, individuals, groups and corporate organizations and above all, repositioning Nigeria for the needed growth and development. Time Nigeria gives emphasis to places and issues that have not been given adequate attention by others. The Magazine is national in outlook and is currently being read and patronized both in print and on our vibrant and active online platform (www.timenigeria.com).
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  By Chidi Nwafor  In October 2023, a Gulf sovereign wealth fund quietly closed a $2 billion allocation to global infrastructure, earmarked in part for emerging-market energy and transport assets. The announcement drew the usual applause: another sign, commentators said, that institutional capital was finally waking up to the infrastructure opportunity in the Global South. Eighteen months later, less than a tenth of that allocation had actually left the fund’s balance sheet. Not because the mandate had changed. Not because the fund had lost appetite. According to two people familiar with the portfolio, the constraint was simpler and more uncomfortable: there were not enough investable projects to put the money into. This is not a story about a reluctant investor. It is a story about capital that wants to move, cannot find enough places willing and able to receive it in a form it can underwrite, and quietly waits instead. Multiply that fund by the hundreds of pension schemes, sovereign wealth vehicles, commercial banks and infrastructure funds now carrying dedicated allocations for emerging-market infrastructure, and a pattern emerges that rarely makes it into a headline: the world is not short of capital for infrastructure. It has capital in historic abundance, sitting adjacent to a historic infrastructure gap, unable to cross the distance between the two. The Comfortable Explanation  The explanation on offer at every major infrastructure summit is a familiar one. Global infrastructure investment needs run into the tens of trillions of dollars over the coming decade; committed capital falls well short; therefore, the problem is one of insufficient funding, and the solution is more of it: more pledges, more blended-finance facilities, more climate funds, more multilateral capital increases. It is a comfortable explanation because it assigns responsibility clearly to governments who under-fund, institutions who under-commit, and it offers a clean remedy: raise more. It is also, on close inspection, not what the evidence shows. Pension funds globally hold trillions in assets under management with explicit infrastructure allocations that remain structurally underweight, not because trustees have rejected the asset class but because deal flow meeting their risk and governance thresholds has not materialised at the pace their mandates assume. Sovereign wealth funds report the same pattern. Commercial banks with dedicated project finance desks describe pipelines that look full at the term-sheet stage and thin dramatically by financial close. Development finance institutions, whose entire purpose is to absorb risk that commercial capital will not, routinely report that their binding constraint is not capital adequacy but the volume of bankable transactions their teams can originate and structure in a given year. None of this fits the scarcity narrative. All of it fits a different one. Availability Is Not Deployability  Capital availability and capital deployability are not the same condition, and the conflation of the two is doing real damage to how the world thinks about the infrastructure gap. Availability asks whether money exists somewhere with a mandate that could, in principle, be pointed at infrastructure. Deployability asks something much narrower and much harder: whether a specific project, at a specific moment, has been engineered, structured, documented and de-risked to the point where an investment committee can approve it without exception. The first condition is met, overwhelmingly, across nearly every category of capital that matters to infrastructure. The second is met by only a small fraction of the projects competing for it. The result is a market that looks, from the outside, like a financing gap, and functions, from the inside, like a conversion problem: an abundance of capital on one side, an abundance of infrastructure need on the other, and an underbuilt set of mechanisms in between capable of turning one into the other at any meaningful scale. Where the Conversion Breaks  The break does not happen at the ends of the process. It happens in the middle, in the unglamorous sequence of work that turns a plausible concept into an instrument a fiduciary can sign. A promising transmission project needs a feasibility study rigorous enough to survive institutional scrutiny rather than optimistic enough to attract early interest. It needs offtake arrangements that hold up under real counterparty and currency risk, not the counterparty risk assumed in a base case. It needs environmental and social documentation calibrated to the standards of the institutions being asked to fund it, not the standards of the jurisdiction hosting it. It needs a legal and commercial structure that allocates risk in ways a commercial lender, not only a development financier, will accept. It needs a sponsor capable of executing what has been proposed, not merely capable of proposing it. 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