After 16 years of uninterrupted democratic governance in Nigeria, Africa’s largest black nation carries out a peaceful transition.
By Wale Rayners, Lagos Bureau Chief.
He’s certainly not contesting the exalted position for the first time but his victorious emergence is historic and shall apparently alter the previous permutations, alignments and realignments that characterized the nation’s politics.
As he steps in as Nigerian Sixth elected head of government, Mohammed Buhari’s reign may pitch Nigeria among the top echelon of democracy advocates across the globe.
Of course, many Nigerians were sceptical over the commitment of the military to return to the barracks after the sudden demise of Late General Sanni Abacha, who ruled the country between 1992 and 1997.
The peaceful transition from retired General Abdulsalam Abubabakar to democratically elected President Olusegun Obasanjo was a foundation for the current healthy civil rule in Nigeria. Obasanjo who was released from prison after the death of the late maximum ruler, was co-opted into party politics and made the presidential candidate of the then embryonic Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
It was learnt that retired General Ibrahim Babangida, the country’s military president between 1885 and 1982 was instrumental to the electioneering process that brought in the Ogun state born general who had also ruled Nigeria as military Head of State from 1976 to 1979.
IBB as the Minna born general is called was said to have tipped northern elements of Obasnjo’s consistent loyalty to the north as he did in 1979 when he handed over power to Shehu Shagari against Obafemi Awolowo, his kinsman.
Such agreement of power rotation between the north and the south was said to have also cemented the acceptability of Obasanjo’s candidacy among the populous northern electorate.
The 1999 general elections saw the PDP rival the All Peoples Party, APP (which later metamorphosed to All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP) in an election that presented Obasanjo of the PDP and Olu Falae of the APP before Nigerians.
The APP could not withstand the financial muscle of the PDP and had to align with a relatively regional party, Alliance for Democracy, AD. The PDP was stigmatized as an assembly of retired military leaders.
The war chest made available to Obasanjo by his military constituency humbled the APP at the presidential poll. However, while APP won many states and seats in the national assembly in the north and the AD maintained it regional domination in the South West states. The five states of South East were shared between PDP and All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA, a sphere headed by the late Biafra war lord, retired General Odumegwu Ojukwu. Thus, the ruling PDP maintained presence in states across the north and the south south giving it the semblance of a national party.
Between 1999 and 2003, the major stakeholders in Nigeria political caucuses embraced the dynamics of the PDP under Obasanjo’s leadership. The then number two citizen, Abubakar Atiku was able to galvanize the strength of the Peoples Democratic Movement, a political association which formed the yoke of the PDP and positioned it as a strong party that could favorably hold on to political power for many years.
The party prided it self as the largest political party in Africa. Some top PDP brass, including Ahmadu Ali, Vincent Ogbulafor, Kawu Baraje and others were at one point or the other reported in the media to have said that “the PDP will rule for 50 years”.
The introduction of many reforms in the nation’s socio-economic and political sectors was a catalyst to the popularity of the ruling party. The Obasanjo administration embarked on aggressive retirement of government workers including police and military officers. Some of the top military officers who were then retired later joined the PDP.
As a result, massive employment took place in the nation’s civil service. The Police embarked on monthly recruitment 2000 and 2004.The issue of minimum wage debuted as national discourse. Teachers and many civil servants smiled to the banks as backlog of arrears were paid. Then, the big selling point of the PDP government was the introduction of the Global System for Mobile Communications, GSM and the banking reforms that catapulted Nigeria into the electronic world.
The establishment of two anti-corruption watch dogs, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC and Independent Corrupt Practice and Related Offences Commission, ICPC strengthened the quest for economic sanity. Under the leadership of Nuhu Ribadu, who was then Assistant Commissioner of Police, ACP, the EFCC convicted many public officers and bank’s chief executives. This was applauded by many Nigerians who held the view that politicians in this part of the world are very corrupt.
While Obasanjo who had polarized the ranks of the opposition parties by inviting some of their brilliant heads into his government was busy rebranding the image of Nigeria abroad, Vice President Atiku was building a formidable grass roots PDP.
The aftermath was Atiku’s alleged leadership tussle with his boss over the supremacy in the PDP. The crisis later led to a strained relationship between the President and his Vice with the former in a game of stoop to conquer during the presidential primary and convention of the PDP in 2003.
By then Atiku had became a force that can never be wished away in the PDP. It took the alleged effort of persuasive team led by the late First Lady, Stella Obasanjo, who allegedly knelt down to practically beg Atiku so as to support Obasanjo who was seeking re-election.
In the build up to the 2003 general elections, late Chief Bola Ige, a chieftain of the opposition AD who had just resigned his appointment as Minister of Power was assassinated in his Ibadan home by yet to be identified gun men. It was gathered that Ige was quitting Obasanjo’s cabinet to take a shot at the presidency on the platform of AD. His death and demise of many other opposition chieftains dealt a big blow to the opposition movement in Nigeria. The nation was left with no other alternative beyond PDP as other contenders lacked both financial strength and geographical spread to contend with the ruling party.
Whether Obasanjo is pro north or his handling of the 1979 elections pitched him against his Yoruba brethren is a debatable topic, the fact that Obasnjo lost in the entire South west during 1999 presidential elections and the thirst of some northern politicians to clinch back power compelled him to stoop and enter into agreement with the AD controlled south west governors in 2003.
TimeNigeria can authoritatively reveal that part of the agreement between Obasanjo and the AD was that the president will “shortchange the PDP governorship candidate in favor of the AD governors who were all seeking re-election in their respective states”. In return, the Yoruba politicians agreed not to field presidential candidate for AD so as to encourage the south west vote for the president.
This, accord with Obasanjo who was having a declining popularity in the north as the presidential ambition of General Buhari became a threat brought the AD to its knees at the poll as the PDP swept all the states in the southwest except Lagos.
This signalled the making of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a political warrior, resisting the Obasanjo’s antics and retaining his job as the governor of Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre.
Buhari, the candidate of the ANPP, could not garner enough support beyond the north while some of his governors including Mohammed Alabi Lawal of Kwara state and Ogbonnaya Onu of Ebonyi state could not secure re-election.
The Atiku PDM mainly in the north raced shoulder to shoulder with the ANPP to secure votes for Obasanjo and with massive support in the south, the PDP did not only retain federal power, it also won more governorship positions and a clear majority seats in the National Assembly.
The ruling party then became a clear political elephant that traversed Nigeria’s political wilderness without fear or favour. Indeed, there was absence of opposition parties in the country between 2003 and 2007. With the fear of the loudly barking anti graft dog, EFCC, the PDP traumatized and dominated the political space.
The Obasanjo era was one that witnessed persistent crisis. The president was fingered in the leadership crisis that rocked the National Assembly. The lawmakers had changed their leaders at will due to” frequent interference and influence by various blocks within the executive arm of government”.
The crack that existed between the duo of the president and his vice in the run up to the 2003 general elections soon resurfaced. It was then the ample time to repay an unfaithful deputy over his disrespect to constituted authority. By this time, Obasanjo had settled down for politicking. He set machinery in place to shop for a successor. Governor Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti state who was touted to be chairing the successor committee was impeached from office as governor. Rasheed Ladoja, who was a PDP governor in Oyo state, was also impeached and his vice Alao Akala took over. Both Fayose and Ladoja were accused of misappropriation of funds. Diepreye Alamsieigya, the then governor of Bayelsa state, was arrested in London for money laundering. He jumped bail and fled to Nigeria but Obasanjo “bundled” him back to face the music at the London court which later jailed him.
Alamsiegya’s deputy, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan became governor. There existed a prolonged crisis between Lagos state government and Federal Government over local government allocations. Tinubu had established more local government areas in the state and the Obasanjo’s led administration decided to starve the state of funds if the governor failed to revert to the old 20 local governments.
While all that was going on, effort were been made to cripple Atiku’s legacy within the party as some other masked elements began campaign for Obasanjo third term in office.
Of course that was an agenda that must first feature an altering of the constitution. The constitution amendment process soon started. The attempt to smuggle in the third term clause was frustrated by Atiku who was desperate to succeed Obasanjo.
With Tinubu, Atiku and other progressives used the Ken Nnamani Senate Presidency to vote against third term. The general belief then was that money would have exchanged hands between pro and anti third term lawmakers.
Following the death of the third term agenda, the successor crisis within the ruling party deepened as Atiku was tactically edged out of the power locus. He was to be impeached but the law makers resisted the plot. By then, many of his followers had deserted him for fear of facing the wrath of the EFCC. He later became lonely and left the party in anger.
Obasanjo and his PDP wanted to use Peter Odili, the then governor of Rivers State as presidential candidate of the PDP. This was rescinded following the adoption of Atiku as the presidential hopeful of the newly formed Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN. The ACN which had leftover of AD elements metamorphosed from Action Congress, AC and then to ACN and adopted Atiku as its 2007 presidential elections.
Apparently perturbed by the South and North dichotomy, the PDP had to field a northerner as its presidential flag bearer.
Odili had commenced campaign when he was accused of running foreign accounts by the EFCC. This, according to Obasanjo and some other PDP key figures, was the reason he could not be trusted with power. In his place, the then Katsina state governor, Umar Musa Yar’Adua, was raised. And Jonathan who had won PDP governorship primary to contest in Bayelsa was adopted as Yar’Adua’s running mate. The ANPP fielded Buhari again and the contest was between the ANPP, ACN and the ruling PDP. The latter won the race.
The quest for a credible elections in the country reverberated as the election of Yar’Adua was highly criticized. The ANPP and its candidate challenged the result in court. Local and international observers expressed mixed reactions as to what transpired at the collation centres.
The question of multiple votes, underage voting, ballot snatching and electoral violence dominated the allegations of irregularities in the 2007 elections. Yard’Adua’s inaugural speech where he admitted that the process that threw him up as president was flawed added credence to the clamors for reforms in the electoral process. Litigations against the success of PDP in some states were challenged and the court reversed the outcome of the result in many states including Osun,Ekiti, Edo, Anambra and Ondo states where the opposition candidates were ordered to be sworn in.
The success of Tinubu in retaining Lagos state and gradually building a virile opposition party can not be over emphasized. Tinubu was instrumental to the displacement of PDP from the entire south west.
Yard’Adua, as president, embarked on critical reforms of the electoral process but his ill health could not give him ample time. Then, Obasanjo had assumed Chairmanship of PDP Board of Trustees, BOT. While the president reduced petroleum pump price and the the amnesty program for the ex Niger Delta militants was gradually restoring peace to the Delta region, the Boko Haram insurgency started in the north. Yar’Adua was not ready to negotiate with the terrorists and so he braced for a fight as he ordered an onslaught against the insurgents, leading to the arrest of the sect’s leader, Mohammed Yusuf.
But his health continued to deteriorate and he had to be flown abroad for medical attention.
The inability of Yar’Adua to communicate to the National Assembly his prolonged absence almost created a political bottleneck as handlers of the president were accused of hiding the true position of things to Nigerians.
The constitution empowers the president to communicate to the National Assembly his decision to be absent from the country and possibly nominate an acting president. There existed a vacuum as Vice President Jonathan could not assumed constitutional mandate of an acting president.
The situation almost led to political logjam as selfish political interests took over. It became a huge crisis as the Federal Executive Council, FEC could not speak with one voice. Late Professor Dora Akunyili raised an alarm of a possible cabal within the FEC and her remarks were taken seriously by concerned Nigerians. It took the combined effort of a non governmental organization, Save Nigeria Group under the leadership of the famous Lagos based lawyer turned Pastor Tunde Bakare who took to the streets of Abuja with other prominent Nigerians such as Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka and a powerful nocturnal pressure by former President Obasanjo for the legislature to adopt the ‘doctrine of necessity’ that eventually empowered the vice president to take over.
Jonathan’s calm dispositions throughout the power game remained a blessing in disguise for the Otuoke-born PhD holder. His emergence as Acting President was based on popular demand. Eventually, Yar’ Adua was confirmed dead in 2010. Jonathan was also confirmed substantial president. Between that time and 2011Jonathan held sway.
There was an agreement between Obasanjo and some northern politicians that the president will not seek a re-election bid in 2015. Thus, many northern politicians who supported him in 2011 did so to have his backing for their political ambition.
The likes of Governor Aliyu Babangida of Niger state, Sule Lamido of Jigawa and others deployed all arsenals to ensure PDP victory. Atiku too returned to the ruling party and Jonathan was set for a successful outing.
It was not out of point to say that the president’s gentle man disposition disarmed the alignment of opposition parties, but one thing was clear: The Balarabe Musa led Conference of All Political parties could not serve as a rallying point to form a virile opposition to challenge the PDP. With the exodus of many politicians to the PDP in the north, it became absolutely impossible to form a workable alliance.
The crack in the wall of the ANPP got messier and Buhari was the major casualty. The Daura born soldier turned democrat floated a new party and few months to the 2011 general elections, his party Congress of Progressive Change, CPC became a slogan of hope in the northern axis.
But then, that was impossible to make him the president as he came second in the poll. The ANPP sponsored Ibraheem Shekarau who was then completing a second term in office as governor of Kano state. The popularity of Shekarau was confined to Kano and he could not go beyond there.
Next, Lagos politicians under the tutelage of Tinubu wanted to sell the former ant-graft czar, Ribadu to Nigerians but the former police officer lacked the political prowess to excel in a presidential contest. It was alleged that following the failure of CPC and ACN to conclude their merger talk, the powers that be within ACN rendered a tactical support to President Jonathan. Thus, Jonathan coasted home to victory.
However, the significance of Buhari soon becomes obvious as he polled over 12 million votes. This was a stride appreciated by the Tinubus and it was described as the reason why the Action Group, Tinubu’s political movement, gave total support to the former military dictator.
Immediately after the general elections in 2011, the opposition movement swung into action. The three leading opposition parties, ACN, ANPP and CPC held pre merger conventions at various point in time where the parties ratified the dissolution of their respective parties. Even when it was initially taught of Buhari/Tinubu’s ticket, the Asiwaju displayed a great sense of patriotism to have jettisoned his interest.
The emergence of Yemi Osinajo as Buhari’s running mate had its drama but Tinubu soon proved the doubting Thomases wrong.
Jonathan’s four years reign was clueless and it was only a matter of time before his political machinery would collapse. Pitiably, his handlers did not see the signs even in the build up to the elections.
Whereas APC had a keenly contested, peaceful and transparent presidential primary, the same could not be said about PDP where Jonathan lorded it over all other aspirants and was declared a consensus candidate at the Abuja Convention in November, 2014.
The 2015 electioneering campaign would be remembered more for the hate campaign than for discussion of issues.
But surprisingly, the doomsday prediction of a split Nigeria based on the country’s known fault lines failed to manifest. Indeed the president’s concession call to Buhari while still awaiting the result of an outstanding state marked a startling anticlimax to a riveting political drama.
