By Abdul Rahman Aliagan, Editor
A combination of high stakes politicking and horse trading by the opposition APC ends the 16-year rule of the PDP
It is probable that President-elect, Muhammadu Buhari , would be shocked by the ease of his sudden ascension to power as the last set of votes trickled in on March 31.
For this ascetic marathoner on Nigeria’s undulating political turf, the portents before the polls were pointing in the direction of a failed state, no thanks to ethnic warlords who insisted vociferously that the nation would become history if the wobbling PDP campaign failed to secure the coveted diadem for President Goodluck Jonathan.
The 5:15 p.m. call to Buhari by an apparently contrite Jonathan conceding defeat marked an anti-climax in an election that is readily the most contentious in Nigeria’s political history.
As the euphoric APC leadership savours its victory, the permutations and political horse trading that swung victory in an hitherto unexpected quarter would for long be the subject of animated discourse in academic and political circles.
Of course , all kinds of thesis have been sprung ranging from the plausible to the ludicrous all seeking to explain away the political gale that swept away a sitting Nigerian president.
Quite popular in certain sundry circles is the alleged plot of geo-political cleavages. Proponents of this position argue that Buhari managed to pull this one off after three attempts due to geo-ethnic conspiracies and betrayals between the South/West and the core North executing a strategic alliance to disrupt and upend the nation’s political calculus.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan
They further argue that the development was helped in no small way by the historical ethnic cleavages between the Igbos and the Yorubas, making it a whole lot easier for the Yorubas to turn their backs on the Igbos.
Such schools of thought, however, exonerated the Middle Belt as not part of the conspiracies and betrayals even though it was co-opted into the plot.
Riling at the South West for partnering the monolithic North to wrest power, it is argued that what was being offered to Nigerians is a marriage of convenience which would soon collapse.
According to a lawyer and unrepentant proponent of this line of reasoning, Franklin Otorofani , “ the joint venture political project entered into between Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of Lagos aspiring to the throne of the Chief Awolowo and ipso facto de-facto leader of the Yorubas on the one hand, and General Muhammadu Buhari of Katsina representing the Northern oligarchy on the other hand, is nothing but a marriage of convenience grounded on political expediency rather than on any enduring ideological construct.
“In other words, it’s an opportunistic proposition hatched in the swirls and whirlwind of conspiracies and betrayals that have characterized Nigerian political atmosphere.’’
But other analysts draw attention to the national groundswell of opposition to the Jonathan presidency following its dismal performance in virtually all sectors of the economy amidst unimaginable high level of corruption and lethargy in fighting the Boko Haram insurgency.
While the country’s economy is growing its wealth is not being spread around. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest oil producer and its largest economy, but many fail to feel the benefits with nearly half the population living below the poverty line.
While the army had made some recent gains against Boko Haram, it was not enough to convince Nigerians. It was a case of too little too late.
The election therefore took place against the background of the Islamist insurgency in the north-east of the country.
The Boko Haram militant group had killed more than 20,000 people and forced some three million others from their homes.
The poll was delayed for six weeks to give time for the security situation to improve, but even though most areas controlled by Boko Haram were recaptured, it seems to have come too late for many people.
Everything that ought to go wrong went bad on the side of the PDP.
At a time that there was iron-vice cohesion within the APC in its resolute bid to wrest power, the PDP was disintegrating due to internal insurrection
Even the extra six weeks of vigorous campaigning by the PDP were not enough to halt the slide in the party’s fortunes
The PDP has been described as an election-winning machine. When it was created it united a northern elite with leading politicians from the south, but that alliance has broken up and the party lost some key figures. Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo came out against Jonathan.
The PDP had lost control of some key states which meant it could not control the electoral process there.
At the same time, the opposition managed to unite under the APC banner. The last six weeks of desperate and dirty campaigning, in which the APC responded in kind, was not enough to turn the tide.
Equally important, past elections have been marred by serious irregularities and suspicions of rigging. In 2007 observers said the presidential poll was not “credible”.
In 2011 the vote was considered to be better run but observers said that rigging and fraud still took place.
This time the electoral commission took more steps to prevent rigging, including the introduction of the new Smart Card Readers.
But beyond this sundry causal factors is the invincibility of the awesome APC political machinery which produced the highly frugal Buhari as flagbearer rather than the touted money bags in the party.
The presidential primary itself is at once a tribute to the tenacity of purpose of the party leadership and the uncommon will to subsume personal ambition for the general good.
Buhari scored a total of 3, 430 votes to defeat former Vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who polled 954 votes with Kano State Governor, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso (974 votes); Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State (624 votes) and Mr. Sam Nda-Isaiah (10 votes) all trailing.
Certainly, Buhari’s victory did not come easy, following apprehension among his supporters that Atiku or Kwankwaso could cause an upset due to the aspirants’ nationwide tour to woo delegates.
Sources in the APC also revealed that a lot of factors helped Buhari pick the ticket.
One of the reasons was the last minute endorsement of Buhari by 12 governors of the APC.
The APC governors, who agreed to support Buhari, were Abiola Ajimobi (Oyo), Adams Oshiomhole (Edo); Rauf Aregbesola (Osun); Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun); Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) and Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers).
Others are Babatunde Fashola (Lagos), Abdulaziz Yari (Zamfara), Ibrahim Geidam (Yobe), Kashim Shettima (Borno), Tanko Al-Makura (Nasarawa) and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara).
It was learnt that the governors supported Buhari for two reasons.
One, they saw the former head of state as a core member of the party, who worked tirelessly with other leaders of the political parties that fused to form APC and thought it would be unfair to deny him the ticket.
They, on the other hand, saw Atiku and Kwankwaso as joiners of the party, who crossed over from the PDP after the APC had been formed.
Two, the governors felt that Buhari would be easy to sell to Nigerian voters, with his large followers in the North.
It was gathered that leaders of APC, including the governors, were afraid that the party would lose most of its supporters if another aspirant was picked instead of Buhari, as it happened in 2011 when the merger between the then All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) failed over who would be the presidential candidate, causing Buhari to form the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) on whose ticket he ran for president.
The intervention of the APC National Leader, Senator Bola Tinubu, was particularly crucial in helping Buhari. It was gathered that Tinubu was instrumental to the governors’ endorsement of Buhari, as he told them that the ultimate was for the APC to win the presidential ticket and whatever candidate that would make this possible should be supported.
Tinubu was also said to have told the governors that defeating Jonathan would not be an easy task and that only a formidable candidate like Buhari could give the APC victory.
Another factor that gave Buhari the ticket came from the unlikely quarter of former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who, though not a member of the APC, indicated preference for Buhari on several consultations some leaders of the opposition party had with him.
The final clincher in the primary horse trading was the consideration for a South West running mate, Prof. Yemi Osibajo, in order to get a block vote from the zone in the presidential election, which, when added to the North East/North West zones, would put Buhari in good stead to win the election.
According to Sunday Dare, long time aide of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, APC rode to power on the strength of the character, integrity and reputation of the ticket presented to Nigerians, that of Gen. Buhari and Prof. Osinbajo.
The eventual outcome of the result was no surprise inspite of the logistic challenges and pockets of violence that marked the exercise in some parts of the country.
In an electoral exercise adjudged by local and international observers to be free, fair and credible, the outcome as presented by INEC Chair, Attaihiru Jega, was victory foretold for the retired general.
Jega, who made the declaration at about 3.30 a.m. on April 1 in Abuja, said that Buhari scored the highest number of votes in the election and met the constitutional provisions to be declared president-elect.
“Having satisfied the provisions of the law and having scored the highest number of votes cast, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari stands elected as president,” Jega declared.
Giving further details on the election result, he said that Buhari polled a total of 15,424,921votes to defeat incumbent President, Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP his closest rival who scored 12,853,162 votes.
The INEC Chairman said the result indicated that Buhari beat Jonathan by 2,571,759 votes, obtained 25 per cent of votes cast in 27 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Jonathan obtained 25 per cent of votes cast in 26 states and the FCT.
According to the 1999 Nigerian Constitution as amended, for a candidate to be declared winner of a presidential election, the candidate must secure a majority of the total votes cast, and a minimum of 25 per cent in two-third of the 36 states of the federation and the FCT.
A further breakdown of the election results showed that Buhari scored 53.96 per cent of the total valid votes cast, and won in all seven states of the North-West geo-political zone comprising Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, and in Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Niger in North Central.
The President-elect also won with wide margins in the North-Eastern states of Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Yobe, and Borno, and the South-West states of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Oyo and Lagos.
Jonathan, on the other hand, won with remarkably wide margins in the South-East states, namely, Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.
He also beat Buhari in all the South-South geo-political zone states of Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Cross Rivers, Edo, Delta and Rivers.
Jonathan also defeated Buhari in Ekiti State in the South-West, Taraba in the North-East, and Nasarawa, Plateau and FCT in the North-Central.
But even before this formal declaration of the presidential results by Jega, another drama was playing out in the ornate chambers of Aso Rock, culminating in the unprecedented 5:15 p.m. call to Buhari by Jonathan conceding defeat.
While Nigerians and the international community continue to praise the president for conceding defeat to Buhari, the move may well have been aborted if the hawks digging deep in the Presidential Villa had gotten their way.
Those acquainted with the drama that unfolded at the presidential villa that March 31 said Jonathan was pulled by two contending forces: loyalists who kept pressuring him to concede defeat and congratulate Buhari, and hawks who insisted he and his party should strongly challenge the APC candidate’s victory.
Sources said even before collation began at the headquarters of INEC in Abuja, Jonathan had indicated he would accept whatever outcome once the election is considered free and fair.
The sources further said that while the president was on the verge of keeping that promise, some hawks in the presidency and the party rushed to the first family’s official residence to warn him against taking “hasty decision”.
It was said that the trio of Finance Minister, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Aviation Minister, Osita Chidoka and Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Muhammed Adoke eventually succeeded in countering the hawks, resulting in the historic concession call.
At the time the call was made, INEC was yet to declare Buhari winner because it was still expecting results from Nigeria’s remote Borno State.
In more ways than one, Jonathan also emerged an hero of sorts as his concession telephone call defused tension across Nigeria..
The few minutes conversation is believed to have saved Nigeria from descending into violence in the aftermath of the election.
The president had since defended his decision to concede defeat to Buhari in the March 28 election, saying he was concerned about allowing his personal ambition to scuttle a democratic system he helped nurtured, with the likely consequence of a “collective tragedy”.
Jonathan said that he needed to check his ambition, as the consequences of not doing so may have been dire not only for Nigeria, but Africa.
The president made the remarks during separate meetings with the new ambassadors of France, Senegal and Ethiopia.
He was responding to commendations for his decision to promptly accept defeat after it became clear Mr. Buhari had won the polls.
“Democracy has to be nurtured to grow. Strong democratic institutions are the backbone and future of our democracy. They must be protected and nurtured. As for me, as a matter of principle, it is always the nation first,” Jonathan said.
“You need to have a nation before you can have an ambition. It should always be the nation first. You don’t have to scuttle national progress for personal ambition.
“Since I assumed duty, I have been involved in quelling political crisis in some African countries and I know what they passed through and what some are still going through.
“ If you scuttle a system for personal ambition, it becomes a collective tragedy,’’ Jonathan declared.
That this collective tragedy was averted by presidential intervention places a greater responsibility on the incoming administration that is enjoying tremendous goodwill among Nigerians and the international community.
This much, Sunday Dare, Chief of Staff to the National Leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, acknowledges:
“I believe that with the goodwill this party has enjoyed, the leadership has a responsibility to perform and fix the problems that plague this country.
“The APC government cannot afford to deviate from the promises it has made to the people and the policies that it has committed itself to.’’