Two weeks ago, the chamber of the 10th Senate attempted a Nostradamus-like feat by decreeing tomorrow into existence and declaring that there would be no vacancy in the seat of the President of the 11th Senate when the National Assembly is inaugurated in June 2027.
The discussion was ignited by the Senate Chief Whip, Tahir Monguno, who represents Borno North Senatorial District in the Red Chamber. According to him, the position of Senate President in the 11th Senate was not open to contest. He declared that Akpabio would secure re-election and again occupy the seat.
He said: “By the grace of God, the majority of us are going to make it back to the Senate, and this seat is hereby declared: there is no vacancy. No vacancy at all, including the seat of DSP, and all other principal officers. I hereby declare there is no vacancy, including principal officers.”
His views were supported by Senator Cyril Fasuyi (APC, Ekiti North), who insisted that Akpabio was already assured of returning as Senate President for a second term in the 11th Senate.
“The seat of the Senate President in the 11th Assembly is not open to any contest. It is already occupied by Senator Godswill Obot Akpabio. I so support,” Fasuyi said. Their submissions were then put to a vote by Akpabio, with the majority of the lawmakers in the chamber backing the motion.
Of course, the senators’ projection rested on the assumption that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would win the presidency and make a clean sweep of the National Assembly seats. They spoke against the background of complaints by Akpabio that his seat was being targeted by many politicians, and that such interests were responsible for politically interpreting the actions of the current Senate.
To Akpabio, the criticisms of the Senate under his leadership were politically motivated and engineered by those who wished to take the seat from him in the 11th National Assembly.
“I know the position of president is gone. The vice presidency is gone. The only one that is left now is the position of senate president. So, everybody will want to contest that, and then we want to mobilise. That is what is left, and everybody is interested.
“So, people who go out there to talk should study the personalities involved. This is a politically charged period. People should go and face the truth and discuss issues, not to try to damage people’s reputations,” he stated.
Although Akpabio put the no-vacancy submissions by Monguno and Fasuyi to a vote on the floor of the Senate, and the motion was carried by the majority—with the Senate President declaring “that settles it”—the question of what will happen on the floor of the Senate in June 2027 cannot be answered at this moment. Not even a day before the chamber convenes.
It is an open secret that Senate President Godswill Akpabio would like to become the first person to equal the enviable record set by Senator David Bonaventure Alechenu Mark, president of the 6th and 7th Senates of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Since Mark left office in 2015, no Senate President has come close to matching that record. There was Senator Bukola Saraki, whose tenure was regarded as an aberration by the presidency he served-Muhammadu Buhari- and which fought him till the last day. Saraki’s tenure was followed by Senate President Ahmed Lawan, who completed Buhari’s second term.
Akpabio’s hopes of securing re-election to the seat rest partly on the unwritten North-South zoning arrangement that successive presidencies have sought to maintain in managing the position. The convention began with President Olusegun Obasanjo, who kept the nation’s number-three seat in the South while he occupied the number-one office. The South-East produced the Senate President throughout Obasanjo’s eight years. The late President Umaru Yar’Adua shifted the position to the North when he emerged as president. The North-Central produced David Mark, and when Yar’Adua died, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, who succeeded him, did not alter the configuration; Mark retained his seat until 2015. As noted earlier, Saraki and Lawan shared the eight years of President Buhari in equal halves.
One thing is certain, however: no one can shave another man’s head in his absence. The same will apply to the 11th Senate. While the preceding Senate may lay down rules and regulations to guide the emergence of new leadership in the incoming chamber, the new chamber will elect its own leaders—most of the time on its own terms.
It is true that, aside from Akpabio, who is eyeing Senator Mark’s record, his deputy, Jibrin Barau, is also seeking a return to the office of Deputy Senate President. Reports further indicate that the Senate Leader, Opeyemi Bamidele, and the Chief Whip, Monguno, equally aspire to retain the posts they currently occupy. While either the Senate Leader or the Chief Whip may not face serious opposition in retaining their seats if they win re-election from their districts and their party secures the required majority on the floor of the Senate, a major battle is expected for the Senate presidency and the deputy senate presidency. It’s not going to be a walk in the park for Akpabio or anyone, even if the APC wins a majority of the seats in the 11th Senate.
In the process leading to the inauguration of the 10th Assembly in 2023, Akpabio was widely seen as the anointed candidate of the APC and the presidential villa. Yet he faced a stiff challenge from Senator Abdulaziz Yari, then a newcomer to the chamber. The danger that usually looms on the day of the Senate’s inauguration is that the rules are not open to interpretation. While electing the Senate President, the lawmakers are still regarded as Senators-elect. That is what the Constitution provides. So, they are not in a position to make reference to the rules. Again, the person who would preside is not by law empowered to interpret the rules because he is not a senator—he is the Clerk to the National Assembly (CNA), a bureaucrat who heads the administrative arm of the parliament—he is not empowered to interpret the rules of the Senate on that occasion.
So, one wonders what all the votes of confidence by Monguno and Fasuyi will amount to in a chamber where no one can invoke such rulings through institutional memory. Consider what transpired on the floor of the Senate in June 2007 when Senator George Akume, a newcomer, attempted to snatch the seat of Senate President from Senator David Mark, who was the clear frontrunner. The ranking rules were set out in the Senate Standing Orders 2007, yet all the Clerk was expected to do was call for nominations, once he could confirm that a quorum had been formed. Anyone could be nominated and seconded. Once a senator-elect was nominated, seconded, and he accepted the nomination, the contest had begun. As soon as Mark and Akume were nominated and seconded and both accepted, the contest was formally opened as the Clerk declared nominations closed. Mark went on to defeat Akume, who scored 37 votes that day. It was a clear signal that once a contest is under way, the result can take any form.
Before the Mark–Akume contest of 2007, in May 2005 the Senate had to replace Senate President Adolphus Wabara, who had resigned under pressure from President Olusegun Obasanjo. A number of PDP senators who were in clear majority in the chamber were, however, unhappy that Obasanjo had sidelined a man they believed had always defended him, yet they did not display their anger openly. When the time came to elect a new Senate President, some of the silently aggrieved lawmakers encouraged Senator Ken Nnamani to enter the race against Ike Ekweremadu, who was the anointed of the Presidency. As the PDP Senate caucus sat to choose its new leader, Ekweremadu—the Villa’s clear favourite—was defeated in the caucus election supervised by the acclaimed “Mr. Fix It” of the era, Chief Tony Anenih. It was a classic case of “Demo ni mo wa” (if you see my hand, you cannot see my mind), as the Yoruba once described their association with Chief S.L. Akintola’s old NNDP in the First Republic.
What does the foregoing say about the October 15 no-vacancy vote in the Senate? A great deal. It tells Akpabio and his supporters that retaining the seat requires far more than a mere vote of confidence that will only enter the Hansard of the 10th Senate and remain a monument therein. Members of the current 10th Assembly must themselves be convinced that the Akwa Ibom senator has provided genuine leadership and has defended the chamber both within and outside its walls. For instance, only 57 senators of the 10th Assembly will have the opportunity to seek re-election in 2027. That already represents a substantial legislative turnover, and there is no assurance that all 57 will win their elections. Is this a measure of how effectively Akpabio has defended his members within the party structure? If new members arrive, how many of them will attribute their emergence to his political engineering?
Moreover, he faces a considerable number of known and unknown contestants ahead of the inauguration of the 11th Senate. Senator Yari is playing a significant role in the re-election of President Bola Tinubu. Will he be content to serve as a floor member in the 11th Senate? There is also Senator Adams Oshiomhole, who is also from the South-South like Akpabio. The South-South and South-East would surely have a good number of second-term lawmakers in the Red Chamber when the 11th Assembly is inaugurated. There are strong indications that the Imo State governor, Hope Uzodinma, who is struggling to secure the APC ticket for the Imo senatorial seat, has an eye on the Senate presidency as well. The fact remains that, aside from the South-West and North-East—which have produced the president and vice-president respectively and may retain those positions if the APC wins the general election—the South-South, South-East, North-West and North-Central are all well qualified to present candidates for the nation’s number-three seat in the forthcoming 11th National Assembly. That is why Akpabio, Monguno, Fasuyi and others on the no-vacancy train cannot shave the head of the 11th Senate in its absence.
